Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
98% | 2% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
98% | 2% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 98% |
| O/U 26.5 | 97% |
| O/U 28.5 | 97% |
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| Panthers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 94% |
| O/U 32.5 | 93% |
| O/U 34.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 89% |
| Panthers O/U 12.5 | 89% |
| Panthers O/U 13.5 | 89% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 88% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 6.5 | 87% |
| O/U 36.5 | 86% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 85% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 84% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 84% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 84% |
| O/U 38.5 | 83% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 83% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 82% |
| Panthers O/U 16.5 | 80% |
| O/U 40.5 | 78% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 77% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 76% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 76% |
| O/U 42.5 | 75% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 74% |
| Panthers O/U 19.5 | 73% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 72% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 71% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 70% |
| Panthers O/U 20.5 | 69% |
| O/U 44.5 | 67% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 67% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 66% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 66% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 65% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 65% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 10.5 | 64% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 63% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 63% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 63% |
| O/U 46.5 | 62% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 62% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 61% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 6.5 | 57% |
| O/U 48.5 | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 1H Moneyline | 56% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 55% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 52% |
| O/U 50.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Panthers O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 25+ | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 19-24 | 50% |
| Panthers vs. Packers: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Panthers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Panthers vs. Packers | 49% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 49% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 49% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 49% |
| Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 12.5 | 48% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 46% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Spread -2.5 | 45% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 45% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 45% |
| O/U 52.5 | 44% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 16.5 | 44% |
| 2H Moneyline | 43% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 42% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 41% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 41% |
| Panthers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 40% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 40% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 17.5 | 40% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 39% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Panthers O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| Panthers O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 19.5 | 39% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 39% |
| O/U 54.5 | 38% |
| Spread -3.5 | 37% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 37% |
| Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 36% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 36% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 16.5 | 36% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 36% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 35% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 35% |
| Spread -4.5 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 34% |
| Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 56.5 | 33% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 33% |
| Panthers 2H O/U 20.5 | 33% |
| Spread -5.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 32% |
| Spread -5.5 | 31% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 17.5 | 30% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 29% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 29% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| O/U 58.5 | 28% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 28% |
| Panthers O/U 30.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 27% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 19.5 | 27% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Panthers O/U 34.5 | 26% |
| Spread -7.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 24% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 24% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| O/U 60.5 | 24% |
| Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 23% |
| Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 22% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -9.5 | 21% |
| Spread -8.5 | 21% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 21% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 21% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 1-6 | 21% |
| Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 20% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| O/U 62.5 | 19% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 19% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| Panthers 1H O/U 20.5 | 17% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| O/U 64.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 15% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 14% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 14% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 13% |
| Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| Spread -14.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 13-18 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| Spread -16.5 | 10% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-13 | 10% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 9% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Panthers by 7-12 | 9% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 14-20 | 9% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| Spread -17.5 | 8% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 7% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 21+ | 7% |
| Spread -19.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 6% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 6% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 6% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 2% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Panthers vs. Packers — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 98%. In the upcoming NFL football game between Panthers and Packers, scheduled for October 29 at 8:15PM ET: This market will resolve to "Panthers" if Panthers win the game. This market will resolve to "Pac…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $1.5M.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Methodisch unterscheiden wir zwei Schichten: die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit (Polymarket-Mid-Preis) und die Plattform-Attribute (Gebühren, KYC, Auszahlung, Settlement-Währung). Eine kanonische Wahrscheinlichkeit über die Zeile, die Anbieter-spezifischen Trade-offs in den Spalten — sauber, vergleichbar, ohne Marketing-Lärm.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Klarna Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Panthers vs. Packers" auf Klarna Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
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