Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 93% |
| O/U 26.5 | 93% |
| O/U 27.5 | 92% |
| Eagles O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 28.5 | 91% |
| O/U 29.5 | 89% |
| O/U 31.5 | 85% |
| O/U 30.5 | 85% |
| O/U 32.5 | 83% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| Eagles O/U 12.5 | 83% |
| Eagles O/U 16.5 | 83% |
| Commanders O/U 10.5 | 82% |
| Eagles O/U 13.5 | 82% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 81% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 33.5 | 80% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 34.5 | 79% |
| Commanders O/U 12.5 | 79% |
| O/U 35.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 77% |
| Eagles O/U 18.5 | 77% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 6.5 | 77% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Eagles O/U 19.5 | 75% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 74% |
| Commanders O/U 13.5 | 74% |
| O/U 36.5 | 74% |
| O/U 37.5 | 71% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| Eagles O/U 20.5 | 68% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| O/U 38.5 | 67% |
| Spread -1.5 | 66% |
| O/U 39.5 | 64% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 64% |
| Eagles O/U 21.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 64% |
| Commanders O/U 16.5 | 63% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 63% |
| O/U 40.5 | 60% |
| O/U 41.5 | 59% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 57% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 57% |
| Eagles O/U 23.5 | 57% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| O/U 42.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 55% |
| Eagles Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 55% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 12.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 54% |
| Eagles O/U 15.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 53% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 52% |
| O/U 43.5 | 52% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 2.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Eagles Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| Commanders O/U 30.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Eagles O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 7-13 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 14-20 | 50% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 21+ | 50% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 50% |
| Commanders Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Eagles 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 13-18 | 49% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 48% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 13.5 | 48% |
| Commanders O/U 19.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 7-12 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| O/U 44.5 | 47% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 47% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 17.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 46% |
| Eagles O/U 26.5 | 46% |
| O/U 45.5 | 45% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 45% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 43% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 43% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 43% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 42% |
| O/U 46.5 | 42% |
| Spread -7.5 | 41% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 41% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 40% |
| Commanders O/U 20.5 | 40% |
| O/U 47.5 | 39% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 39% |
| Spread -8.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 38% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 37% |
| Eagles O/U 27.5 | 37% |
| Commanders O/U 22.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 37% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 37% |
| O/U 48.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 36% |
| Spread -9.5 | 36% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 36% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Commanders Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 49.5 | 34% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 34% |
| Spread -10.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 33% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 33% |
| Commanders vs. Eagles | 32% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 32% |
| O/U 51.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 31% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 16.5 | 31% |
| O/U 50.5 | 30% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| Commanders O/U 23.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 29% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 13.5 | 27% |
| Eagles O/U 30.5 | 26% |
| Exact Margin: Eagles by 1-6 | 26% |
| Spread -2.5 | 26% |
| Spread -13.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 26% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 26% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 26% |
| O/U 52.5 | 25% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 25% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 24% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 24% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 24% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 19.5 | 24% |
| O/U 53.5 | 23% |
| Commanders O/U 25.5 | 23% |
| Spread -14.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 23% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 23% |
| Exact Margin: Commanders by 1-6 | 22% |
| Spread -3.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 22% |
| Commanders O/U 26.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| O/U 54.5 | 21% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 21% |
| Spread -4.5 | 20% |
| Spread -16.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 19% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 16.5 | 19% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 20.5 | 19% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 18% |
| Spread -5.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 18% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| Eagles 1H O/U 20.5 | 18% |
| O/U 55.5 | 17% |
| Spread -17.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 17% |
| O/U 56.5 | 17% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 17% |
| Commanders O/U 27.5 | 17% |
| Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 16% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| Eagles O/U 34.5 | 16% |
| Commanders 1H O/U 19.5 | 16% |
| O/U 57.5 | 15% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 15% |
| Commanders O/U 34.5 | 15% |
| Spread -19.5 | 14% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 58.5 | 14% |
| Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| Spread -20.5 | 13% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 13% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 13% |
| Commanders O/U 28.5 | 13% |
| O/U 59.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 12% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 11% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 11% |
| O/U 60.5 | 11% |
| Spread -8.5 | 10% |
| Spread -9.5 | 10% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| Spread -21.5 | 9% |
| O/U 62.5 | 9% |
| O/U 61.5 | 8% |
| O/U 67.5 | 8% |
| O/U 63.5 | 7% |
| O/U 65.5 | 7% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| O/U 64.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 6% |
| Spread -13.5 | 5% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 5% |
| Spread -14.5 | 4% |
| Spread -16.5 | 4% |
| Spread -21.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -19.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 2% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Live-Daten von Polymarket zeigen 93% Ja-Wahrscheinlichkeit für Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Commanders wins, the market will resolve to "Commanders". If Eagles wins, the market will resolve to "Eagles". If the game is post…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $95K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Commanders vs. Eagles auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Die Auflösung läuft on-chain. Polymarkets Vertragslogik trennt YES- und NO-Anteile als Conditional Tokens; bei Auflösung werden die richtigen Anteile zu 100¢ und die anderen zu 0¢. Die Outcome-Eingabe kommt vom UMA Optimistic Oracle, das mit einem Bond-System gegen falsche Auflösung absichert.
Sobald die Auflösung durch ist, hebt der Smart Contract alle gewinnenden Anteile zu USDC und schickt die Beträge an die Wallets der Inhaber. Das geschieht binnen Minuten der finalen Bestätigung — ohne Auszahlungsgebühren über die Polygon-Netzwerkkosten hinaus.
Häufige Fragen
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Wie verlässlich sind die angezeigten Quoten?
- Die YES/NO-Prozentsätze sind die Live-Mid-Preise des Polymarket-Orderbuchs. Auf Märkten mit hoher Liquidität bewegen sich diese Werte sekündlich; bei dünneren Märkten sehen Sie kurze Plateaus.
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