Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| O/U 24.5 | 97% |
| O/U 25.5 | 94% |
| O/U 27.5 | 94% |
| O/U 26.5 | 94% |
| O/U 28.5 | 93% |
| Vikings O/U 10.5 | 93% |
| O/U 29.5 | 92% |
| Packers O/U 10.5 | 92% |
| O/U 30.5 | 90% |
| O/U 31.5 | 88% |
| O/U 32.5 | 86% |
| Vikings O/U 14.5 | 85% |
| O/U 33.5 | 84% |
| 2Q O/U 6.5 | 82% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 81% |
| O/U 34.5 | 81% |
| O/U 35.5 | 80% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 79% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 6.5 | 79% |
| O/U 36.5 | 77% |
| Packers O/U 16.5 | 77% |
| 1Q O/U 3.5 | 76% |
| O/U 37.5 | 75% |
| Vikings O/U 17.5 | 75% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 75% |
| Packers 1H O/U 6.5 | 74% |
| O/U 38.5 | 72% |
| Vikings O/U 19.5 | 71% |
| O/U 39.5 | 70% |
| Packers O/U 17.5 | 70% |
| 1Q O/U 6.5 | 69% |
| 3Q O/U 6.5 | 68% |
| 1H O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| Packers O/U 19.5 | 67% |
| O/U 40.5 | 66% |
| Packers O/U 14.5 | 66% |
| Packers O/U 13.5 | 65% |
| 3Q O/U 3.5 | 63% |
| O/U 41.5 | 62% |
| Vikings O/U 20.5 | 62% |
| Vikings O/U 12.5 | 62% |
| O/U 42.5 | 61% |
| 1H O/U 16.5 | 61% |
| O/U 43.5 | 59% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 58% |
| Packers O/U 20.5 | 57% |
| O/U 44.5 | 56% |
| Spread -0.5 | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 2Q | 56% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 4Q | 56% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| 4Q O/U 5.5 | 55% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 3Q | 54% |
| 2H Moneyline | 53% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 53% |
| O/U 45.5 | 52% |
| Spread -1.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 52% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 52% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 5.5 | 52% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 52% |
| 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 51% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 14.5 | 51% |
| Packers 1H O/U 8.5 | 51% |
| Packers 1H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| Vikings O/U 23.5 | 51% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 7-13 | 51% |
| Safety? | 51% |
| Team to Record Longest FG | 51% |
| Packers Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 51% |
| Packers vs. Vikings: Total Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 9.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 11.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -20.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 51% |
| 4Q Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 5.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 51% |
| Packers O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Packers 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 6.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 12.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 17.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 19.5 | 51% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 20.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 51% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Vikings Total Offensive Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Packers 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Vikings 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Packers 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 49% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 49% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 14-20 | 49% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 49% |
| Packers O/U 30.5 | 49% |
| Packers O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Vikings O/U 34.5 | 49% |
| Packers 1H O/U 17.5 | 49% |
| Packers 1H O/U 15.5 | 49% |
| O/U 46.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 25+ | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 19-24 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 13-18 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 7-12 | 48% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 21+ | 48% |
| Packers Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| Vikings Total Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 48% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 48% |
| Vikings O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 48% |
| 1Q O/U 9.5 | 47% |
| 1Q O/U 15.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 47% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 47% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| 1H Moneyline | 46% |
| Packers O/U 23.5 | 46% |
| Packers vs. Vikings | 45% |
| O/U 47.5 | 45% |
| Packers 1H O/U 10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 43% |
| O/U 48.5 | 43% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 42% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 42% |
| Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| Spread -3.5 | 41% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 41% |
| O/U 49.5 | 40% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 40% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - 1Q | 40% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 40% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 40% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 13.5 | 40% |
| Vikings O/U 26.5 | 39% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 39% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 39% |
| 2Q O/U 14.5 | 39% |
| Vikings O/U 27.5 | 39% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 38% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 38% |
| O/U 50.5 | 38% |
| Spread -4.5 | 37% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 37% |
| Exact Margin: Vikings by 1-6 | 36% |
| Spread -5.5 | 36% |
| Spread -3.5 | 35% |
| Packers 1H O/U 13.5 | 35% |
| O/U 51.5 | 34% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 34% |
| Packers O/U 26.5 | 34% |
| Exact Margin: Packers by 1-6 | 34% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 33% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 33% |
| O/U 52.5 | 33% |
| Spread -6.5 | 32% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 32% |
| Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 31% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 31% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 31% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 30% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 30% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 29% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 29% |
| 4Q O/U 14.5 | 29% |
| O/U 53.5 | 28% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 28% |
| Spread -5.5 | 28% |
| Spread -7.5 | 28% |
| 1H Spread -6.5 | 28% |
| Packers O/U 27.5 | 28% |
| Spread -6.5 | 27% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 16.5 | 27% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 26% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| Vikings O/U 29.5 | 26% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 26% |
| O/U 54.5 | 26% |
| Spread -8.5 | 25% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 25% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 24% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 24% |
| O/U 55.5 | 23% |
| Packers O/U 29.5 | 23% |
| Spread -9.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 23% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 23% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 23% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 22% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 22% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 22% |
| O/U 56.5 | 22% |
| Vikings O/U 30.5 | 22% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 21% |
| Packers 1H O/U 16.5 | 21% |
| O/U 57.5 | 20% |
| Spread -7.5 | 20% |
| Spread -10.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 20% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 20% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 20% |
| Exact Margin: Tie | 19% |
| Spread -8.5 | 19% |
| Spread -21.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 19% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| 3Q O/U 14.5 | 19% |
| Spread -9.5 | 18% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 18% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 18% |
| O/U 58.5 | 18% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 17% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 17% |
| O/U 59.5 | 16% |
| Spread -13.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -9.5 | 16% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 16% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| 2H Spread -9.5 | 15% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| Spread -14.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -8.5 | 14% |
| 1H Spread -20.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 14% |
| O/U 60.5 | 14% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 19.5 | 14% |
| O/U 61.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 13% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 13% |
| 1Q O/U 14.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -13.5 | 12% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 12% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 12% |
| O/U 62.5 | 12% |
| Packers 1H O/U 19.5 | 12% |
| Vikings 1H O/U 20.5 | 12% |
| O/U 63.5 | 11% |
| Spread -16.5 | 11% |
| Spread -17.5 | 11% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 10% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 9% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 9% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 9% |
| Packers 1H O/U 20.5 | 9% |
| O/U 65.5 | 8% |
| Spread -19.5 | 8% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| 4Q Spread -10.5 | 8% |
| O/U 64.5 | 8% |
| Spread -20.5 | 7% |
| 1Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| 3Q Spread -10.5 | 7% |
| Spread -16.5 | 6% |
| Spread -17.5 | 6% |
| Spread -19.5 | 5% |
| Spread -20.5 | 5% |
| Spread -21.5 | 5% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Packers vs. Vikings — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 97%. In the upcoming NFL game, scheduled for September 13 at 4:25PM ET: If Packers wins, the market will resolve to "Packers". If Vikings wins, the market will resolve to "Vikings". If the game is postpone…
Live-Daten & Statistiken
Live-Statistiken werden geladen, sobald das Spiel beginnt. Aktuelle Quoten sind oben verfügbar. Handelsvolumen: $103K.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Wir tracken Prognose: Packers vs. Vikings auf den fünf Plattformen mit substanzieller Prediction-Market-Liquidität. Die angezeigte Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Live-Mid; die Vergleichszeilen zeigen, wie jede Plattform den zugrundeliegenden Vertrag handhabt — Gebühren, KYC, Settlement, Einzahlungsmethoden. Die hervorgehobene Zeile markiert die günstigste Route in Polymarkets Orderbuch.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Wie funktioniert die Auflösung?
- Über das UMA Optimistic Oracle: ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, USDC-Auszahlung erfolgt automatisch.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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