Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
94% | 6% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
94% | 6% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots | 94% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots | 90% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots | 85% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots | 79% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots | 78% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots | 73% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots | 70% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots | 69% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots | 65% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots | 63% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots | 62% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots | 61% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots | 59% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals + assists | 52% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals + assists | 51% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots | 51% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 2+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 4+ saves | 50% |
| Matt Turner: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 5+ saves | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots on target | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ assists | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots on target | 50% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Jeremy Doku: 4+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Matt Turner: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Thibaut Courtois: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brandon Mechele: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Hans Vanaken: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Timothy Castagne: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals + assists | 45% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals + assists | 43% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ goals + assists | 42% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 2+ shots | 42% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals + assists | 41% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ shots | 40% |
| Alex Freeman: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Chris Richards: 1+ shots | 39% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals | 38% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ shots | 34% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Antonee Robinson: 1+ shots | 33% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ shots | 31% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ goals | 30% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ shots | 26% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Youri Tielemans: 3+ shots | 25% |
| Tim Ream: 1+ shots | 25% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ shots | 22% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals | 21% |
| Folarin Balogun: 4+ shots | 21% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ shots | 21% |
| Christian Pulisic: 1+ assists | 21% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ goals + assists | 21% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ shots | 20% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Leandro Trossard: 1+ assists | 19% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ shots | 18% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goals | 18% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 4+ shots | 17% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ goals | 17% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shots | 16% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goals | 14% |
| Christian Pulisic: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Leandro Trossard: 4+ shots | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Folarin Balogun: 5+ shots | 13% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Folarin Balogun: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Weston McKennie: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Youri Tielemans: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Alex Freeman: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 3+ shots | 12% |
| Tyler Adams: 2+ shots | 12% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ assists | 12% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 4+ shots | 11% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ shots | 11% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 4+ shots | 10% |
| Sergiño Dest: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Antonee Robinson: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Chris Richards: 2+ shots | 10% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 5+ shots | 9% |
| Gio Reyna: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Chris Richards: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Sergiño Dest: 3+ shots | 9% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ goals | 8% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Youri Tielemans: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Jeremy Doku: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Malik Tillman: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals + assists | 8% |
| Christian Pulisic: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Trossard: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Weston McKennie: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Tyler Adams: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Haji Wright: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ goals | 6% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Tim Ream: 2+ shots | 6% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ goals | 5% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Haji Wright: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Alex Freeman: 3+ shots | 5% |
| Malik Tillman: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ assists | 5% |
| Hans Vanaken: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals + assists | 5% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 2+ goals | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assists | 4% |
| Brandon Mechele: 3+ shots | 4% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ assists | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Maxim De Cuyper: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Sergiño Dest: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals + assists | 4% |
| Haji Wright: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Christian Pulisic: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Folarin Balogun: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Leandro Trossard: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Brandon Mechele: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Timothy Castagne: 1+ goals + assists | 3% |
| Gio Reyna: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 1+ goals | 3% |
| Antonee Robinson: 3+ shots | 3% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brandon Mechele: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Brenden Aaronson: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Gio Reyna: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Hans Vanaken: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 3+ goals | 2% |
| Christian Pulisic: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Dodi Lukebakio: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Folarin Balogun: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Haji Wright: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ricardo Pepi: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Romelu Lukaku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Weston McKennie: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Youri Tielemans: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Charles De Ketelaere: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Malik Tillman: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Sergiño Dest: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Jeremy Doku: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Leandro Trossard: 3+ goals | 0% |
| Malik Tillman: 3+ goals | 0% |
Markt-Kontext
Marktkonsens: 94% Chance für prognose: united states vs. belgium - player props. Prognosemärkte bündeln echtes Kapital zu diesem Wahrscheinlichkeitssignal. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between United States and Belgium, scheduled for July 6 at 8:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Klarna Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Sind Prediction-Märkte in Deutschland legal?
- Prediction-Märkte befinden sich in Deutschland in einem rechtlichen Graubereich. Polymarket selbst ist in Deutschland geo-blockiert. Handeln Sie nur mit Kapital, dessen Verlust Sie verkraften können, und prüfen Sie die rechtliche Lage für Ihre Jurisdiktion.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
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Jetzt „Prognose: United States vs. Belgium - Player Props" auf Klarna Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →