Plattform-Vergleich
| Plattform | JA-Quote | NEIN-Quote | Gebühr | KYC | Auszahlung | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (über Klarna Wetten) Empfohlen polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
72% | 28% | 0 % (USDC on-chain) | Bis $1.500 ohne KYC | USDC, automatisch via UMA | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
72% | 28% | 0% | Geo-blockiert in DE/AT/CH | USDC, on-chain | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Bis 7 % pro Trade | US-only, KYC erforderlich | USD | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5 % Kommission | Vollständige KYC ab erstem Trade | GBP / EUR | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Spielgeld (mana) | Keine — Spielgeld | Mana (kein Cash-Out) | Auf Polymarket ansehen → |
Ergebnis-Wahrscheinlichkeiten
Aktuelle marktimplizierte Wahrscheinlichkeit je Ergebnis aus dem Live-Orderbuch.
| Ergebnis | Wahrscheinlichkeit |
|---|---|
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots | 72% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots | 68% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots | 66% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots | 57% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ shots on target | 56% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots | 55% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots | 53% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals | 52% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots | 52% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots | 50% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 2+ shots | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ shots on target | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots on target | 50% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals + assists | 50% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ goals | 50% |
| Facundo Medina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nahuel Molina: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Nico Elvedi: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 2+ shots | 49% |
| Remo Freuler: 3+ shots | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots on target | 49% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots on target | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Gregor Kobel: 3+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 2+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 4+ saves | 49% |
| Juan Musso: 5+ saves | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Fabian Rieder: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Johan Manzambi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ goals + assists | 49% |
| Cristian Romero: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 3+ shots | 48% |
| Manuel Akanji: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 2+ shots | 48% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots on target | 48% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ shots on target | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 4+ shots on target | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots on target | 48% |
| Gregor Kobel: 5+ saves | 48% |
| Juan Musso: 3+ saves | 48% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Fabian Rieder: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Granit Xhaka: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ goals + assists | 48% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ shots on target | 45% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots on target | 44% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals + assists | 44% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots on target | 42% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ shots | 40% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots | 40% |
| Cédric Itten: 3+ goals | 39% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots | 38% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ shots on target | 38% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ goals + assists | 38% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ shots | 37% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots | 37% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots on target | 37% |
| Cristian Romero: 1+ shots | 36% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 3+ goals | 36% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots | 35% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots on target | 35% |
| Denis Zakaria: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots | 34% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots on target | 34% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ shots | 32% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots on target | 31% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots on target | 30% |
| Gregor Kobel: 4+ saves | 30% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals | 28% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ shots | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 1+ assists | 28% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ shots on target | 28% |
| Facundo Medina: 1+ shots | 27% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ goals | 27% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots | 26% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ shots on target | 25% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ shots | 24% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ shots | 24% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots | 24% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ goals + assists | 23% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ shots | 22% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals + assists | 20% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ goals | 19% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ shots | 19% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots | 19% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ shots on target | 19% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals + assists | 17% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ goals | 16% |
| Julián Álvarez: 4+ shots | 16% |
| Lisandro Martínez: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Nahuel Molina: 1+ shots on target | 16% |
| Dan Ndoye: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ shots | 15% |
| Remo Freuler: 1+ shots on target | 15% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ shots | 14% |
| Ruben Vargas: 3+ shots | 14% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ assists | 14% |
| Cédric Itten: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 1+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás González: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Nicolás Paz: 3+ goals | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ goals | 13% |
| Cristian Romero: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Denis Zakaria: 2+ shots | 13% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 1+ assists | 13% |
| Dan Ndoye: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ assists | 13% |
| Manuel Akanji: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Nico Elvedi: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Ricardo Rodriguez: 1+ shots on target | 13% |
| Breel Embolo: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Leandro Paredes: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás González: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Nicolás Paz: 1+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Thiago Almada: 3+ goals | 12% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 4+ shots | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ assists | 12% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ shots on target | 12% |
| Fabian Rieder: 2+ goals | 12% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 3+ shots | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ assists | 11% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ goals | 10% |
| Enzo Fernández: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Granit Xhaka: 3+ shots | 10% |
| Julián Álvarez: 5+ shots | 10% |
| Breel Embolo: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Dan Ndoye: 4+ shots | 9% |
| Julián Álvarez: 1+ assists | 9% |
| Fabian Rieder: 1+ goals | 9% |
| Cédric Itten: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 1+ goals | 8% |
| Enzo Fernández: 4+ shots | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 3+ shots | 8% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Ruben Vargas: 1+ assists | 8% |
| Giovani Lo Celso: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 1+ goals | 7% |
| Breel Embolo: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 5+ shots | 7% |
| Leandro Paredes: 3+ shots | 7% |
| Ruben Vargas: 4+ shots | 7% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ assists | 7% |
| Lionel Messi: 2+ assists | 7% |
| Thiago Almada: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Dan Ndoye: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Ruben Vargas: 5+ shots | 6% |
| Breel Embolo: 1+ assists | 6% |
| Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals | 6% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 1+ goals | 5% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Enzo Fernández: 5+ shots | 5% |
| Rodrigo de Paul: 4+ shots | 5% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ goals | 4% |
| Lionel Messi: 3+ goals | 4% |
| Leandro Paredes: 4+ shots | 4% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 2+ goals | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 1+ assists | 3% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ assists | 3% |
| Breel Embolo: 2+ goals | 2% |
| Granit Xhaka: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Julián Álvarez: 2+ assists | 2% |
| Alexis Mac Allister: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Enzo Fernández: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Giuliano Simeone: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Johan Manzambi: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Julián Álvarez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Lautaro Martínez: 3+ goals | 1% |
| Ruben Vargas: 2+ goals | 1% |
| Zeki Amdouni: 2+ goals | 1% |
Markt-Kontext
Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props — aktuelle Marktwahrscheinlichkeit: 72%. Player prop markets for the FIFA World Cup game between Argentina and Switzerland, scheduled for July 11 at 9:00 PM ET.
Methodik dieser Bewertung
Diese Übersicht vergleicht Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props über fünf Plattformen. Die Live-Wahrscheinlichkeit ist der Polymarket-Mid-Preis aus dem Polygon-Orderbuch; die Vergleichs-Spalten zeigen Gebührenstruktur, KYC-Schwellen, Settlement-Währung und Zahlungswege jeder Plattform. Alle CTAs leiten zu Klarna Wetten, das den Polymarket-Orderbuch zu 0 % Gebühren spiegelt.
Auflösung & Auszahlung
Polymarket-basierte Märkte werden über das UMA Optimistic Oracle auf Polygon aufgelöst. Ein Vorschlagender reicht das Ergebnis ein, ein zweistündiges Einspruchsfenster öffnet sich, und unangefochtene Vorschläge schließen die Auflösung ab. Auszahlungen erfolgen automatisch in USDC, sobald das Ergebnis final ist — keine Buchhalter, keine Verzögerung.
Kalshi-basierte Märkte werden in USD über die CFTC-regulierte Settlement-Engine ausgezahlt. Betfair Exchange zahlt in GBP/EUR aus, abzüglich Kommission. Manifold ist Spielgeld und zahlt keine echten Beträge aus.
Häufige Fragen
- Wo kann ich diesen Markt am günstigsten handeln?
- Polymarket selbst ist global zugänglich, in DE/AT/CH allerdings geo-blockiert. Der einfachste Broker mit gleichem Orderbuch und 0 % Gebühr ist Klarna Wetten. Kalshi nimmt bis zu 7 % pro Trade, Betfair Exchange 2-5 % Kommission auf Gewinne.
- Was ist der Unterschied zwischen YES- und NO-Anteilen?
- Ein YES-Anteil zahlt $1,00 bei Eintritt des Ereignisses, sonst $0. Ein NO-Anteil zahlt $1,00, wenn das Ereignis nicht eintritt. Der Marktpreis zwischen 0¢ und 100¢ ist die implizite Wahrscheinlichkeit.
- Welche Gebühren fallen bei Polymarket an?
- Direkt am Polymarket-Orderbuch keine Gebühren — die einzigen Kosten sind Polygon-Netzwerkgebühren (typischerweise unter $0,01 pro Transaktion). Off-chain Plattformen wie Kalshi oder Betfair verlangen 2-7 % Kommission.
- Wie lange dauert eine USDC-Einzahlung?
- Auf Polygon werden Einzahlungen nach 12 Bestätigungen gutgeschrieben — in der Regel unter 30 Sekunden. Withdrawals folgen demselben Pfad und sind binnen Minuten auf Ihrer Wallet.
- Brauche ich KYC für diesen Markt?
- Auf Polymarket direkt nicht. Über vermittelnde Broker wie Klarna Wetten ist KYC erst ab $1.500 lebenslangem Trading-Volumen erforderlich — darunter handeln Sie pseudonym mit nur einer Wallet-Adresse.
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Jetzt „Prognose: Argentina vs. Switzerland - Player Props" auf Klarna Wetten handeln
Live-Orderbuch, 0 % Gebühren, USDC-Auszahlung in Sekunden.
Live-Markt öffnen →